Nyuma y’itangira ry’Intambara hagati y’Uburusiya na Ukraine, izamuka ry’ibiciro by’ibiribwa ku isi ryagize ingaruka ku mutekano w’ibiribwa ku isi, byatumye isi irushaho gusobanukirwa neza ko ishingiro ry’umutekano w’ibiribwa ari ikibazo cy’amahoro n’iterambere ku isi.
Mu mwaka wa 2023/24, bitewe n’ibiciro by’ibikomoka ku buhinzi ku rwego mpuzamahanga byari biri hejuru, umusaruro w’ibinyampeke na soya ku isi wongeye kuzamuka cyane, bituma ibiciro by’ibiribwa bitandukanye mu bihugu bireba isoko nyuma yo gushyira ku rutonde ibinyampeke bishya bigabanuka cyane. Ariko, bitewe n’izamuka ry’ibiciro ryatewe n’itangwa ry’ifaranga rikomeye ryakozwe n’Ikigo gishinzwe imari ya Amerika muri Aziya, igiciro cy’umuceri ku isoko mpuzamahanga cyazamutse cyane ku buryo kigera ku rwego rwo hejuru mu rwego rwo kugenzura izamuka ry’ibiciro mu gihugu no kugenzura kohereza umuceri mu Buhinde.
Igenzura ry’isoko mu Bushinwa, mu Buhinde no mu Burusiya ryagize ingaruka ku izamuka ry’umusaruro w’ibiribwa mu 2024, ariko muri rusange, umusaruro w’ibiribwa ku isi mu 2024 uri ku rwego rwo hejuru.
Bikwiye kwitabwaho cyane, igiciro cya zahabu ku isi gikomeje kuzamuka cyane, igabanuka ry’agaciro ry’amafaranga ku isi ryihuta, ibiciro by’ibiribwa ku isi bizamuka cyane, iyo umusaruro n’ibikenewe ku mwaka bigaragaye ko ari icyuho, ibiciro by’ingenzi by’ibiribwa bishobora kongera kuzamuka cyane, bityo rero hakenewe kwitabwaho cyane ku musaruro w’ibiribwa, kugira ngo hirindwe ko habaho ihungabana.
Ubuhinzi bw'ibinyampeke ku isi
Mu mwaka wa 2023/24, ubuso bw'ibinyampeke ku isi buzaba ari hegitari miliyoni 75.6, ubwiyongere bwa 0.38% ugereranyije n'umwaka ushize. Umusaruro wose wageze kuri toni miliyari 3.234, kandi umusaruro kuri hegitari wari 4.277 kg/ha, wiyongereyeho 2.86% na 3.26% ugereranyije n'umwaka ushize. (Umusaruro wose w'umuceri wari toni miliyari 2.989, wiyongereyeho 3.63% ugereranije n'umwaka ushize.)
Muri 2023/24, imiterere y’ikirere mu buhinzi muri Aziya, i Burayi na Leta Zunze Ubumwe za Amerika muri rusange iba ari myiza, kandi ibiciro by’ibiribwa biri hejuru bishyigikira iterambere ry’abahinzi mu guhinga, bigatuma umusaruro w’ibihingwa ku isi wiyongera.
Muri byo, ubuso bw’ingano, ibigori n’umuceri bwatewe mu 2023/24 bwari miliyoni 601.5 za hegitari, bugabanutseho 0.56% ugereranyije n’umwaka ushize; Umusaruro wose wageze kuri toni miliyari 2.79, ubwiyongere bwa 1.71%; Umusaruro kuri buri buso wari 4638 kg/ha, ubwiyongere bwa 2.28% ugereranyije n’umwaka ushize.
Umusaruro mu Burayi no muri Amerika y'Epfo waragarutse nyuma y'amapfa mu 2022; Igabanuka ry'umusaruro w'umuceri mu majyepfo no mu majyepfo y'uburasirazuba bwa Aziya ryagize ingaruka mbi ku bihugu biri mu nzira y'amajyambere.
Ibiciro by'ibiribwa ku isi
Muri Gashyantare 2024, igipimo cy’ibiciro by’ibiribwa bivanze ku isi * cyari $353 ku toni y’Amerika, cyagabanutseho 2.70% ku kwezi ku kwezi na 13.55% ku mwaka ku mwaka; Muri Mutarama-Gashyantare 2024, igiciro cy’ibiribwa bivanze ku isi cyari $357 ku toni, cyagabanutseho 12.39% ku mwaka ku mwaka.
Kuva umwaka mushya w'ihinga (guhera muri Gicurasi), ibiciro by'ibiribwa ku isi byagabanutse, kandi igiciro cy'ibiribwa kuva muri Gicurasi kugeza Gashyantare cyari amadolari 370 y'Amerika kuri toni, cyagabanutseho 11.97% ugereranyije n'umwaka. Muri byo, igiciro cy'ingano, ibigori n'umuceri muri Gashyantare cyari amadolari 353 y'Amerika kuri toni, cyagabanutseho 2.19% ugereranyije n'ukwezi na 12.0% ugereranyije n'umwaka; Igiciro cy'ibiribwa muri Mutarama-Gashyantare 2024 cyari amadolari 357 kuri toni, cyagabanutseho 12.15% ugereranyije n'umwaka; Igiciro cy'ibiribwa kuva muri Gicurasi kugeza Gashyantare cyari amadolari 365 kuri toni, cyagabanutseho amadolari 365 kuri toni ugereranije n'umwaka.
Igipimo cy’ibiciro by’ibinyampeke muri rusange n’igipimo cy’ibiciro by’ibinyampeke bitatu by’ingenzi byagabanutse cyane mu mwaka mushya w’ihinga, bigaragaza ko imiterere y’ibicuruzwa muri rusange mu mwaka mushya w’ihinga yazamutse. Ibiciro biriho ubu muri rusange byagabanutse ku rugero rwaherukaga kugaragara muri Nyakanga na Kanama 2020, kandi gukomeza kugabanuka bishobora kugira ingaruka mbi ku musaruro w’ibiribwa ku isi mu mwaka mushya.
Ingano y'ibinyampeke ku isi n'ibikenewe
Mu mwaka wa 2023/24, umusaruro w’ibinyampeke by’umuceri nyuma y’umuceri wari toni miliyari 2.989, ubwiyongere bwa 3.63% ugereranyije n’umwaka ushize, kandi kwiyongera k’umusaruro byatumye igiciro kigabanuka cyane.
Biteganijwe ko umubare w’abaturage ku isi yose uzaba miliyari 8.026, ubwiyongere bwa 1.04% ugereranyije n’umwaka ushize, kandi ukwiyongera k’umusaruro n’ibiribwa birenga ukwiyongera kw’abatuye isi. Ikoreshwa ry’ibinyampeke ku isi ryari miliyari 2.981, naho ingano y’ibiribwa ku mwaka yari toni miliyoni 752, aho umutekano wabyo uri 25.7%.
Umusaruro wa buri muntu wari 372.4 kg, 1.15% hejuru y'umwaka ushize. Ku bijyanye n'ikoreshwa ry'ibiryo, ikoreshwa ry'ibiryo ni 157.8 kg, ikoreshwa ry'ibiryo ni 136.8 kg, ikoreshwa ry'ibindi biryo ni 76.9 kg, naho ikoreshwa muri rusange ni 371.5 kg. Ibiro. Igabanuka ry'ibiciro rizazana ukwiyongera kw'ikoreshwa ry'ibindi biryo, bizabuza igiciro gukomeza kugabanuka mu gihe kizaza.
Icyerekezo cy'umusaruro w'ibinyampeke ku isi
Dukurikije uko ibiciro rusange by’isi bihagaze ubu, ubuso bw’ibinyampeke ku isi mu 2024 ni hegitari miliyoni 760, umusaruro kuri hegitari ni kg 4,393 kuri hegitari, naho umusaruro ku isi ni toni miliyoni 3,337. Umusaruro w’umuceri wari toni miliyari 3.09, ubwiyongere bwa 3.40% ugereranije n’umwaka ushize.
Dukurikije uko akarere n'umusaruro bihagaze ku buso bw'ibihingwa bihingwa ku buso bw'ibihingwa bikomeye ku isi bigenda bizamuka, bitarenze umwaka wa 2030, ubuso bw'ibihingwa ku isi buzaba bungana na hegitari miliyoni 760, umusaruro ku buso buzaba 4.748 kg kuri hegitari, naho umusaruro wose ku isi uzaba toni miliyari 3.664, munsi y'igihe cyabanje. Izamuka rigabanuka mu Bushinwa, mu Buhinde no mu Burayi ryatumye umusaruro w'ibihingwa ku isi ugabanuka.
Mu 2030, Ubuhinde, Brezili, Leta Zunze Ubumwe za Amerika n'Ubushinwa bizaba ari byo bihingwa cyane ku isi. Mu 2035, biteganijwe ko ubuso bw'ibinyampeke ku isi buzagera kuri hegitari miliyoni 789, umusaruro ukaba ungana na kg 5,318 kuri hegitari, n'umusaruro rusange ku isi ungana na toni miliyari 4.194.
Ukurikije uko ibintu bimeze ubu, nta bura ry’ubutaka buhingwa ku isi, ariko kwiyongera k’umusaruro kuri buri gipimo ni gake cyane, bikaba bisaba kwitabwaho cyane. Gushimangira iterambere ry’ibidukikije, kubaka uburyo bwo gucunga neza, no guteza imbere ikoreshwa rya siyansi n’ikoranabuhanga rigezweho mu buhinzi ni byo bigena umutekano w’ibiribwa ku isi mu gihe kizaza.
Igihe cyo kohereza: Mata-08-2024