Ku ya 11 Kamena uyu mwaka, Ikigo gishinzwe iteganyagihe cy’ikirere cy’Ikigo cy’Igihugu gishinzwe ibidukikije n’inyanja (NOAA) cya Leta Zunze Ubumwe za Amerika cyasohoye ku mugaragaro umuburo wa El Niño - amagambo yemewe yari "El Niño irageze". Iyi si raporo isanzwe y’ikirere ngarukamwaka. Isuzuma ry’amahirwe ryashyizwe ahagaragara icyarimwe ryagaragaje ko amahirwe y’uko iki gikorwa kizaba "kikomeye cyane" hagati y’Ugushyingo 2026 na Mutarama 2027 ari hejuru ya 63%, kandi ubukana bwacyo "buzaza mu bya mbere mu mateka hamwe n’inyandiko z’ibikoresho kuva mu 1950". Impuzandengo y’iteganyagihe ry’Ikigo cy’Uburayi gishinzwe iteganyagihe ry’ikirere giciriritse (ECMWF) irushaho kuba mbi: byitezwe ko ubushyuhe bw’inyanja butari bwiza mu karere ka Niño 3.4 buzagera kuri +3℃ mu Kuboza uyu mwaka, ndetse hari n’ibintu bimwe na bimwe birenga +4℃.
Gusobanukirwa akamaro k'iyi mibare: Ikibazo gikomeye cya El Niño kuva inyandiko z'ikirere za none zatangira cyabaye mu 2015-16, aho ubusanzwe cyabaye ku rwego rwo hejuru rwa +2.6°C.Ibiteganyijwe haruguru nibiba impamo, igikorwa cyo mu 2026-27 kizarenga nibura 15%, kigere ku rugero rutari rwarigeze rubaho.
Inyandiko z'amateka zitubwira iki?
El Niño si ikintu gishya, ariko igihe cyose habayeho ikintu cy' "imbaraga zikomeye", gisiga inkovu mu mateka y'ubuhinzi.
1997-98: Igipimo cya Niño 3.4 cyari hejuru cyane muri iki gikorwa cyari hafi +2.3°C, bituma kiba kimwe mu bikomeye cyane mu kinyejana cya 20. Indoneziya, Filipine, na Tayilande byahuye n'amapfa akomeye. Ishami ry'Umuryango w'Abibumbye ryita ku biribwa n'ubuhinzi (FAO) ryatangaje ko umusaruro w'ibihingwa muri Amerika yo Hagati no mu karere ka Karayibe wagabanutseho hafi 15% ugera kuri 20% ugereranije n'umwaka ushize. Hari ibihugu byagize igihombo gikomeye kurushaho. Uduce twatewemo ingano muri Brezili na Arijantine twagabanutse cyane bitewe n'imvura idasanzwe. Mu majyepfo y'uburasirazuba bwa Aziya, iki gikorwa cyatumye toni miliyoni 15 z'umuceri zitakaza.
2015-16: Byombi byageze ku rwego rwo hejuru rwa +2.6°C, ari narwo rwari hejuru cyane mu mateka ya none. Umusaruro w'ibigori mu Buhinde wagabanutseho hafi 4%, naho umusaruro w'umuceri wagabanukaho hafi 1%. Isoko ry'Amajyepfo y'Aziya ryagizweho ingaruka, kandi igiciro cy'umuceri cyarazamutse, bituma Ubuhinde bukomeza gukaza amategeko agenga ibyoherezwa mu mahanga. Afurika y'Amajyepfo yahuye n'amapfa akomeye, kandi umusaruro w'amashanyarazi aturuka ku rugomero rwa Kariba muri Zambiya na Zimbabwe waragabanutse cyane, bituma ikibazo cy'ingufu gikwirakwira mu bihugu byinshi.
Mu 2023-24: Ishami ry’Umuryango w’Abibumbye ryita ku Iteganyagihe (WMO) ryashyize iki gikorwa mu byiciro bitanu bikomeye kurusha ibindi byose byabayeho. Iki gikorwa, hamwe n’ubushyuhe bw’isi burimo kwiyongera, cyatumye umwaka wa 2024 uba umwaka ushyushye cyane kurusha iyindi yose, ndetse byongera ubushyuhe bw’ubuhinzi mu bice bimwe na bimwe bya Afurika y’Iburasirazuba na Aziya y’Amajyepfo.
Inyigo nini y’isuzuma yasohotse mu kinyamakuru Nature Communications mu 2014 yagaragaje ko ibyabaye kuri El Niño bikunze gutuma umusaruro w’ibigori, umuceri n’ingano ku isi uhinduka uva ku rugero rusanzwe ho -4.3% ukagera kuri +0.8%, mu gihe soya yungutseho hafi 2.1% kugeza kuri 5.4% bitewe n’imvura nyinshi mu bice bimwe na bimwe bya Amerika. Inyuma y’aya makuru hari itandukaniro rikomeye mu turere - umusaruro ntuterwa n’ubukana bw’ibyabaye, ahubwo uterwa n’aho uhinze n’icyo uhinga.
Igenamigambi ry'itandukaniro ry'uturere muri 2026
Amategeko y'amateka yaduhaye ikarita idatunganye ariko ifite akamaro y'ibyago.
Ubuhinde na Aziya y'Epfo: Ubuhinde bugira hafi 24% by'umusaruro w'umuceri ku isi. Imvura yo mu Buhinde ifite isano iri hagati ya ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) - mu myaka ya El Niño, imvura yo mu mpeshyi muri rusange iba idafite imbaraga. Ibintu bitatu bikomeye byabaye mu 1997-98, 2015-16, na 2023-24, buri kimwe cyateye inzitizi zo kohereza ibicuruzwa mu mahanga i New Delhi, bituma ibihugu bitumiza umuceri ku isi biwutumiza. Raporo y'umuburo ya FAO ivuga neza ko ibyago byo kubura ubuhinzi muri Aziya y'Epfo no muri Aziya y'Amajyepfo y'Uburasirazuba ari byo "bikomeye cyane", aho amahirwe yo kurenga 50% mu turere tumwe na tumwe duhura n'amapfa.
Aziya y'Amajyepfo y'Uburasirazuba: Indoneziya, Filipine, Tayilande, Viyetinamu na Kamboje byose biri mu gace kahoze gafite ibyago byinshi. Amavuta ya palmie arakomeye cyane - Maleziya na Indoneziya ni byo bihingwa cyane ku isi, kandi ibihugu byombi ntibyahunze impanuka zikomeye za El Niño mu bihe byashize. Ipamba n'isukari nabyo biri mu cyiciro cy'ibyago byinshi.
Ositaraliya: Ositaraliya ifatwa nk'igihugu gitanga ingano cyane ku isi hose kirangwa no kumva ibimenyetso bya ENSO. Mu myaka ya El Niño, imvura muri Queensland na New South Wales ikunze kugaragaza itandukaniro rikomeye ugereranyije n'ingano zisanzwe, bigatera ikibazo gikomeye ku ngano zo mu mpeshyi na sayiri.
Brezili: Ibi ni ibintu bigoye cyane. El Niño ikunze gutuma imvura igwa cyane mu majyepfo ya Brezili, ibi bikaba ingirakamaro mu ihingwa rya soya. Ariko, imvura nyinshi ishobora no gutuma ubwiza bwa kawa bugabanuka ndetse n’indwara zimwe na zimwe z’ibinyamisogwe ziyongera. Raporo ya JRC y’Umuryango w’Ubumwe bw’u Burayi igaragaza ko igiciro cy’ingano zikomeye ku isi cyitezwe kuzamuka cyane mu gihe El Niño irushaho kwiyongera, mu gihe ibiciro bya soya n’ingano zitukura z’imbeho ku isi bishobora kugabanuka bitewe n’inyungu ziva mu turere duhingwamo muri Amerika.
Afurika y'Iburasirazuba na Sahel: Aka karere gakurikiza ihame ritandukanye n’iry’Amajyepfo y’Uburasirazuba bwa Aziya - mu myaka ya El Niño, imvura iriyongera, ariko mu gihe ubutaka bwangiritse n’ibikorwa remezo bike, imvura nyinshi ishobora kutazatera umusaruro ahubwo igatera imyuzure n’isuri. FAO yatanze umuburo kuri Somaliya, kandi igikoresho cya JRC cyitwa INFORM Warning cyashyize ibihugu byinshi byo muri Afurika yo Hagati mu byiciro "by’ibyago byinshi by’ubutabazi".
Ubushinwa: Mu mateka, ingaruka za El Niño ku Bushinwa ziratandukanye bitewe n'uturere. Amajyepfo y'Ubushinwa yaguye imvura nyinshi cyane, mu gihe Amajyaruguru n'Amajyaruguru y'Uburasirazuba byahuye n'ibyago byinshi byo kubura amapfa. Mu gihe cya 1997-98, habaye umwuzure ukomeye mu majyepfo y'Ubushinwa n'amapfa akomeye mu majyaruguru y'uburasirazuba, byagize ingaruka ku musaruro w'ibyo bihingwa muri uwo mwaka.
Uburyo bwo kohereza amakuru ku isoko ry'imiti ikoreshwa mu buhinzi
Isano iri hagati y’imihindagurikire y’ikirere n’isoko ry’imiti yica udukoko si isano nziza kandi igomba kuganirwaho mu buryo bwimbitse.
Ingaruka zo kugabanuka kw'ibikenewe ku ruhande rw'ubusabe: Mu gihe cy'amapfa, ubushake bw'abahinzi bwo guhinga n'ubukana bw'ishoramari ryabo biragabanuka, kandi kugura imiti yica udukoko akenshi ni kimwe mu bintu bishobora kugabanuka cyane. Mu gihe cya El Niño mu majyepfo y'uburasirazuba bwa Aziya mu 1997-98, ubwinshi bw'imiti yica udukoko muri Indoneziya na Filipine bwaragabanutse cyane. Ibi byatewe ahanini n'igabanuka ry'ibiciro mu busitani bw'imyaka ndetse n'uko abahinzi bagabanyije ishoramari ryabo nyuma y'uko inyungu zabo zigabanuka.
Impinduka mu miterere y’udukoko n’indwara: Imvura nyinshi mu turere tumwe na tumwe ituma indwara ziyongera cyane, mu gihe amapfa ashobora gutera cyangwa kuzana icyorezo cy’udukoko twihariye. Mu mateka, habayeho isano iri hagati y’imyaka ya El Niño n’ibikorwa by’udukoko twimuka nka nzige. Muri 2023-24, guhuza ubushyuhe bwinshi na El Niño byateje ingaruka zidasanzwe z’udukoko nk’udusimba tw’umweru n’udusimba mu masoko menshi yo mu turere dushyuha.
Ibicuruzwa byo mu miyoboro n'igitutu cy'imari: Mu myaka ifite ikirere kibi cyane cy'ubuhinzi, ishyirwa mu bikorwa ry'ibicuruzwa mu miyoboro ikwirakwizwa akenshi rigabanukaho kimwe cya kane kugeza kuri bibiri bya kane. Ku isoko rya Brezili mu gihe cyo kugabanya ibicuruzwa byo mu 2023-24, ingaruka za El Niño zateje imvura nyinshi mu gace, kandi indwara za soya (nk'ingese ya soya yo muri Aziya) mu turere tumwe na tumwe zarushijeho kwiyongera bitewe n'ubushuhe bwinshi. Iri tandukaniro mu karere ku bashoramari bo mu Bushinwa bohereza ibicuruzwa mu mahanga bivuze ko mu mwaka umwe, ibimenyetso by'ubusabe bw'ibicuruzwa bivuye ku masoko atandukanye bishobora kuba bitandukanye rwose.
Igitutu giturutse ku ifumbire mvaruganda n'imiti yica udukoko: Ni ngombwa kumenya ko kuza kwa El Niño mu 2026, hamwe n'uburyo ibintu byakomejwe mu nzira ya Hormuz bitewe n'imimerere yo mu Burasirazuba bwo Hagati, byamaze gushyira igitutu ku ifumbire mvaruganda ya urea na fosifate yoherezwa mu mahanga. Muri raporo ye yo muri Werurwe uyu mwaka, Paul Donovan, umuhanga mu by'ubukungu mukuru wa UBS, yavuze neza ati: “Ibura ry'ifumbire mvaruganda ya azote rishobora kuba ritari ikibazo gikomeye ku biciro by'ubuhinzi muri uyu mwaka; El Niño ikomeye ni yo.”
Kwizerwa kw'ingero z'ikirere byaragabanutse.
Mu bihe bikomeye, kwizerana kw'ingero z'ikirere bizagabanuka. Raporo ya JRC ivuga neza ko niba ibyabaye bigeze ku "bunini budasanzwe", icyitegererezo cyabyo kiba cyarenze kure ibyo cyabanje gukora.°C muri Niño 3.4 ntibyigeze bibaho mu gihe cy'inyandiko z'ibikoresho. Ikintu nk'iki cyabaye mu 1877-78 cyateje inzara ku isi, ariko nta makuru nyayo dufite yo muri iki gihe yo kugereranya neza.
Bityo rero, aho iyi nkuru iherereye ni: Guteganya ibyago bishingiye ku bintu "bikomeye kugeza ku bikomeye cyane" mu rugero rw'amahirwe ya 70% nk'uko bigaragara mu ntangiriro, aho gushingira ku rugero rw'inyuma rwa +4°C. Iya mbere yamaze gukomera bihagije kandi ifite amateka menshi yo kwishingikirizaho.
Indi mpamvu y’ibibazo ishingiye ku bushobozi bw’ubuhinzi bw’Ubushinwa mu guhangana n’ibiza. Mu myaka ya vuba aha, Ubushinwa bwongereye cyane ishoramari ryabwo mu gutanga inama ku birebana n’ikirere n’ibikorwa remezo byo kuhira. Ubushobozi bwabwo bwo kurwanya amapfa ntagereranywa n’ubwo mu 1997-98. Mu Buhinde ibintu bisa n’ibyo - uburyo bwo kuhira nyuma y’impinduramatwara y’ibidukikije bugizwe n’igice kinini cy’uturere duhingwamo umuceri, bukongera ubushobozi bwabwo bwo guhangana n’ibihe bidasanzwe by’imvura. Ariko, amakuru y’amateka agaragaza neza aho ingaruka zishobora guterwa n’ibiza.
Igikorwa cya El Niño cyo mu 2026 gishobora kuba cyaratangiye. Ikibazo nyacyo ni ubukana bwacyo, niba ingaruka zihuriweho z’ikirere n’inyanja bizayitera kurenza amateka.
Ku bijyanye n'ubuhinzi ku isi, ibi bivuze ko igihe cyo kudasobanukirwa neza imiterere y'ibihingwa kizakomeza gufungurwa kuva mu gice cya kabiri cy'uyu mwaka kugeza mu mpeshyi ya 2027. Ku nganda zikora imiti ikomoka ku buhinzi, iki ni ikimenyetso cy'itandukaniro ry'ibikenewe mu karere ndetse n'ikizamini cy'ihungabana ry'ubukungu ku buryo uruhererekane rw'ibicuruzwa ruhagaze neza.
Amateka atubwira ko ingaruka z’ubuhinzi ku gikorwa cya super El Niño akenshi zigira igihe cy’amezi 6 kugeza kuri 12 - igihombo nyacyo cy’umusaruro gikunze kugaragara gusa nyuma y’igihe cy’agahenge cy’igikorwa. Ibi bivuze ko ibiciro bigaragara ku isoko ubu bishobora kuba bitaratanze igiciro cyuzuye muri iki kibazo.
Igihe cyo kohereza: Kamena-23-2026
