Ibigori, nk'ibihingwa bitatu by'ingenzi mu Bushinwa, bifite ubuso bunini bwo guhingamo kandi ni byo bitanga umusaruro mwinshi kurusha ibindi byose mu bihingwa by'ibiribwa. Bifite umwanya ukomeye mu by'ingenzi mu kurinda umutekano w'ibiribwa mu gihugu, bishyigikira iterambere ry'inganda zitunganya ibiryo n'urwego rwo kubitunganya mu buryo bwimbitse. Mu myaka ya vuba aha, byagizweho ingaruka n'ibintu byinshi nko guhindura imiterere y'ibicuruzwa n'ibikenewe mu gihugu no mu mahanga, igabanuka ry'ibiciro rimwe na rimwe, ndetse n'izamuka ry'ibiciro by'umusaruro rikomeje kwiyongera, inganda z'ibigori zihanganye n'ikibazo cy'imiterere y'"umusaruro mwinshi ariko imikorere yazo ikaba mike".
Muri urwo rwego, hashingiwe ku makuru y’ingenzi y’inganda z’ibigori mu Bushinwa, iyi nyandiko isesengura ku buryo burambuye ibipimo by’ingenzi nk’umusaruro, ibiciro by’isoko, ubucuruzi bw’ibitumizwa mu mahanga n’ibyoherezwa mu mahanga, imiterere y’ibiciro n’amafaranga yinjira mu bihingwa. Isuzuma ku buryo burambuye uko ibicuruzwa n’ibikenewe bihagaze, ihindagurika ry’ibiciro n’impinduka mu mafaranga yinjira ku isoko ry’ibigori mu gihugu, cyane cyane igereranya itandukaniro mu biciro byo guhinga ibigori n’amafaranga yinjira hagati y’Ubushinwa na Leta Zunze Ubumwe za Amerika.
Isesengura ry'imiterere y'umusaruro w'ibigori mu Bushinwa
1.1. Akarere kageze ku iterambere ryiza mu myaka itatu yikurikiranya.
Dukurikije imibare y’Ikigo cy’Igihugu gishinzwe ibarurishamibare, mu 2025, ubuso bw’ibigori mu Bushinwa bwageze kuri miliyoni 6,744.12 za mu (hafi hegitari miliyoni 674), bwiyongereyeho miliyoni 330.15 za mu ugereranije no mu 2024, hamwe n’umuvuduko wiyongereyeho hafi 0.49%. Muri rusange byagarutse ku rwego rw’amateka rwo mu 2015. Ariko, umuvuduko w’ubwiyongere wagiye ugaragaza ko umuvuduko ugabanuka buhoro buhoro, uva kuri 4.99% mu 2021 ukagera kuri 0.49% mu 2025, bigaragaza ko umwanya wo kwagura ubuso bw’ibigori mu Bushinwa wabaye muto cyane.
1.2. Umusaruro urenga toni miliyoni 300
Kuva mu 2015 kugeza 2025, umusaruro w'ibigori mu Bushinwa wagaragaje ko "wagabanutse mbere hanyuma ukiyongera". Ugereranyije n'ubwiyongere bw'umusaruro mu gace gahingwamo "U-shaped", umuvuduko wo kugaruka kw'umusaruro wari wihuta kandi ukwiyongera kwari kwiyongera cyane. Kuva mu 2015 kugeza 2018, byari igihe cyo kugabanuka gato, aho umusaruro wagabanutse kuva kuri toni miliyoni 264.992.2 ugera kuri toni miliyoni 257.173.9, kugabanuka kwa hafi 2.95%. Kuva mu 2019 kugeza 2025, byinjiye mu gihe cy'izamuka rihoraho. Uretse impinduka nto muri 2020, byageze ku izamuka ryiza mu myaka itanu yikurikiranya, biva kuri toni miliyoni 26.077.89 bigera kuri toni miliyoni 30.123.5, kuzamuka kwa hafi 15.51%. Muri 2025, umusaruro w'ibigori mu Bushinwa warenze toni miliyoni 300 ku nshuro ya mbere, bishyiraho amateka mashya.
1.3. Imiterere y'Igihugu y'Inganda z'Ibigori
Mu 2024, umusaruro w'ibigori mu ntara 10 zikurikira - Heilongjiang, Jilin, Mongolia y'imbere, Shandong, Henan, Hebei, Liaoning, Xinjiang, Sichuan, na Yunnan - waje mu myanya ya mbere kugeza ku icumi ya mbere mu gihugu hose. Umusaruro w'ibigori wa buri ntara warenze toni miliyoni 100 - ungana na toni miliyoni 24089.16 (hafi toni miliyari 2.41), bingana na 81.68% by'umusaruro w'ibigori mu gihugu. Muri zo, Heilongjiang yakomeje ku mwanya wa mbere mu bijyanye n'umusaruro, igera kuri toni miliyoni 4584.94, bingana na 15.55% by'umusaruro wose mu gihugu.
2.1. Ibyifuzo by'abaguzi n'ibiciro bihagaze
Ukurikije imiterere y’ikoreshwa ry’ibigori, mu mwaka w’ingengo y’imari wa 2024/2025, ibigori byose byakoreshejwe mu Bushinwa byari toni miliyoni 297.86. Muri ibyo, ikoreshwa ry’ibiryo by’amatungo ryari rinini, ringana na toni miliyoni 193.50, ringana na 64.96% by’ikoreshwa ryose. Mu ikoreshwa ry’ibiryo by’amatungo, ubworozi bw’ingurube bwari 50%, naho ikoreshwa ry’ibiryo by’inkoko ryari 40%. Ikoreshwa ry’inganda ryakurikiwe cyane, aho ingano yakoreshejwe yari toni miliyoni 83.40, ringana na 28%. Mu myaka ya vuba aha, hamwe n’ubushobozi bwo gutunganya bukomeje kwiyongera, ikoreshwa ry’ibigori mu nganda ryarushijeho kuba rihamye. Ubushobozi bwo gukora bukwirakwira cyane cyane mu turere duhinga ibigori mu majyaruguru y’uburasirazuba n’Amajyaruguru y’Ubushinwa, aho byose hamwe byari birenga 80% by’ubushobozi bwose. Ikoreshwa ry’imbuto ni rito, ringana na 0.43%. Muri rusange, ikoreshwa ry’ibiryo by’amatungo n’ikoreshwa ry’inganda ryari rirenga 92%, ari na byo bitera imbaraga mu ikoreshwa ry’ibigori mu Bushinwa.
Kuva mu ntangiriro za 2023 kugeza mu ntangiriro za 2026, ibiciro by'ibigori byo mu gihugu muri rusange byagaragaje izamuka ry'ibiciro, biva kuri yuan 3.04 kuri kilo muri Mutarama 2023 bigera kuri yuan 2.5 kuri kilo muri Werurwe 2026, hamwe n'igabanuka ry'ibiciro bigera kuri 17.76%. Muri icyo gihe, ibiciro by'ibigori mpuzamahanga nabyo byagaragaje igabanuka ry'ibiciro, biva kuri yuan 2.82 kuri kilo bigera kuri yuan 2.24 kuri kilo, hamwe n'igabanuka ry'ibiciro ku rwego mpuzamahanga ryagera kuri 20.57%. Ihindagurika ry'ibiciro ku rwego mpuzamahanga ryakunze kugaragara, kandi byombi byagaragaje igabanuka ry'ibiciro ku rwego mpuzamahanga, ariko urwego rw'ibiciro mu gihugu muri rusange rwari hejuru ugereranije n'ibiciro ku rwego mpuzamahanga mu bihe byinshi.
2.2. Isesengura ry'imiterere y'ubucuruzi bw'ibitumizwa mu mahanga n'ibyoherezwa mu mahanga
Dukurikije amakuru aturuka muri gasutamo y'Ubushinwa, mu 2025, ingano y'ibikomoka ku bigori biva mu Bushinwa yari toni miliyoni 266.35, bingana na toni miliyoni 213 ugereranyije n'ingano y'ibyoherezwa mu mahanga (toni miliyoni 53.38); ingano y'ibyoherezwa mu mahanga yari miliyoni 715 z'amadolari y'Amerika, bingana na 0.34% by'ingano yose y'ibikomoka ku buhinzi byinjiye mu gihugu mu 2025 (miliyari 207.41 z'amadolari y'Amerika); ingano y'ibyoherezwa mu mahanga yari miliyoni 404 z'amadolari y'Amerika, bingana na 0.39% by'ingano yose y'ibikomoka ku buhinzi by'igihugu byoherezwa mu mahanga mu 2025 (miliyari 104.16 z'amadolari y'Amerika); icyuho cy'ubucuruzi cyageze kuri miliyari 3.11 z'amadolari y'Amerika.
Mu bijyanye n’ubucuruzi, mu 2025, umusaruro w’ibigori winjijwe mu Bushinwa wari “ibigori, hatarimo ibyo gutera”, “ibigori bikonjeshejwe”, “ibijumba by’ibigori”, “ibigori biryoshye bitatunganyijwe cyangwa ngo bibikwe hakoreshejwe vinegere”, “ifu y’ibigori”, “ibigori byo gutera”, nibindi, byose hamwe bikaba byari mu byiciro 10. Igicuruzwa cyari gifite ingano nini cyane y’ibicuruzwa byinjijwe mu mahanga cyari “ibigori, hatarimo ibyo gutera” – gifite ingano ya toni 2,646,290.81 (hafi ibiro miliyoni 264.63) n’agaciro k’amadolari y’Amerika 692,642,700 (hafi miliyoni 693 z’amadolari y’Amerika), bingana na 99.35% na 96.82% by’ingano yose y’ibicuruzwa bituruka mu Bushinwa n’agaciro k’ibicuruzwa bituruka mu Bushinwa mu 2025, uko bikurikirana.
Ibicuruzwa by'ingenzi byoherezwa mu mahanga ni "ibinyampeke by'ibigori", "ibinyampeke bitunganywa cyangwa bikabikwa hakoreshejwe uburyo butari acetike", "ibinyampeke bikonjeshejwe", "andi mavuta y'ibigori n'ibikomoka kuri byo", "ibigori by'ibikomoka ku matungo", nibindi, byose hamwe bikaba 10. Muri byo, umusaruro ufite ingano nini yoherezwa mu mahanga ni "ibinyampeke by'ibigori" - ingano yoherezwa mu mahanga muri 2025 ni toni 213.444.1 (hafi toni miliyoni 21.34), naho agaciro koherezwa mu mahanga ni miliyoni 81.9832 z'amadolari y'Amerika (hafi miliyoni 0.82 z'amadolari y'Amerika), bingana na 39.99% na 20.29% by'ingano yose yoherezwa mu mahanga n'agaciro k'ibinyampeke bikomoka ku bigori mu Bushinwa mu 2025. Igicuruzwa gifite agaciro kanini ko koherezwa mu mahanga ni "ibigori biryoshye byatunganyijwe cyangwa bikabikwa hakoreshejwe uburyo butari acetike" - ingano yo koherezwa mu mahanga muri 2025 ni toni 172,079.29 (hafi toni miliyoni 17.21), naho agaciro ko koherezwa mu mahanga ni miliyoni 181.123 z'amadolari y'Amerika (hafi miliyoni 1.81 z'amadolari y'Amerika), bingana na 32.24% na 44.82% by'ingano yose yoherezwa mu mahanga n'agaciro k'ibigori byoherezwa mu mahanga mu Bushinwa mu 2025.
3. Isesengura ry'Ikiguzi n'Ibyiza byo Gutera
3.1. Igiciro cyose kuri hegitari
Dukurikije "Ikusanyirizo ry'amakuru ku giciro cy'ibikomoka ku buhinzi n'inyungu", mu 2024, ikiguzi cyose kuri mu y'ibigori mu Bushinwa cyari yuan 1,316.7. Ugereranyije n'umwaka wa 2023, wari yuan 1,312.04, cyiyongereyeho yuan 4.66, bivuze ko cyiyongereyeho hafi 0.36%. Mu gihe kirekire, ikiguzi cyose kuri mu y'ibigori mu Bushinwa kuva mu 2014 kugeza 2024 cyagaragaje ko kizamuka cyane. Mu gihe cy'imyaka 10, cyiyongereye kuva kuri yuan 1,063.89 kigera kuri yuan 1,316.7, hamwe n'izamuka rya 23.76%.
3.2. Agaciro k'umusaruro kuri buri mwaka
Dukurikije imibare yavuye mu "National Agricultural Cost and Revenue Data Compilation", kuva mu 2014 kugeza mu 2024, agaciro k'ibigori kuri hegitari mu Bushinwa kagaragaje impinduka zidasanzwe zo "kubanza kugabanuka, hanyuma bikiyongera, hanyuma bikongera kugabanuka cyane". Kuva mu 2014 kugeza mu 2016, agaciro k'umusaruro kuri hegitari karagabanutse kuva kuri 1.145.71 yuan kugera kuri 765.89 yuan, hamwe n'igabanuka rya 33.15%. Hanyuma byinjiye mu gihe cy'izamuka cyamaze imyaka irindwi, kandi byakomeje kuzamuka kuva mu 2017 kugeza mu 2023, bigera ku gasongero k'amateka ka 1.466.43 yuan mu 2023, hamwe n'izamuka rikomeye cyane ry'umwaka ushize muri 2020, kuri 27.87%. Ariko, mu 2024, agaciro k'umusaruro kuri hegitari karagabanutse kagera kuri yuan 1,093.94, kagabanukaho cyane umwaka ku mwaka kangana na 25.40%, bigasubira ku rwego rwo kuva mu 2015 kugeza mu 2019.
3.3. Inyungu kuri buri hegitari
Inyungu ikomoka ku musaruro w'ibigori yerekeza ku musaruro wa nyuma uva mu bikorwa byo gutera ibigori nyuma yo gukuramo ikiguzi cyose cy'umusaruro nk'imbuto, ifumbire mvaruganda, abakozi n'imashini. Ni cyo kimenyetso cy'ingenzi cyo gupima inyungu z'ubukungu z'umusaruro w'ibigori. Dukurikije imibare yavuye mu "National Agricultural Product Cost and Revenue Compilation", ishingiye ku nyungu ya hegitari y'ibigori mu Bushinwa kuva mu 2014 kugeza 2024, inyungu iterwa mu guhinga igaragaza imiterere y'"inyungu n'igihombo bisimburana, hamwe n'ihindagurika ryiyongera mu myaka ya vuba aha": muri 2014, habayeho inyungu nto ya yuan 81.82, kuva mu 2015 kugeza 2019, habayeho igihombo cy'imyaka itanu yikurikiranya (igihombo gikomeye cyane mu 2016 cyari yuan 299.7), kuva mu 2020 kugeza 2023, habayeho inyungu y'imyaka ine yikurikiranya, naho muri 2022, yageze ku gasongero ka yuan 163.25, ariko muri 2024, yagabanutse cyane igera kuri yuan -222.76, isubira ku gihombo gikomeye. Ukurikije amakuru y’agaciro k’umusaruro, nubwo agaciro k’umusaruro kagabanutseho 25.4% mu 2024, inyungu yagabanutse iva ku nyungu ya yuan 154.39 igera ku gihombo cya yuan 222.76, bigaragaza ko igitutu cy’ibiciro cyiyongereye cyane cyangwa igabanuka ry’ibiciro ryarenze cyane ibyo byari byitezwe.
Igihe cyo kohereza: Gicurasi-19-2026
